Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

561
FXUS64 KFWD 151047
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of North Texas and
  East Texas through this evening.

- Hot and humid conditions along with daily low storm chances can
  be expected through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 210 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/
/Today and Tonight/

A warm and humid night is unfolding across North and Central
Texas as southerly flow persists beneath the building ridge aloft.
Overnight lows will remain elevated, generally in the mid to
upper 70s with parts of the Metroplex likely hovering closer to 80
degrees through sunrise. The upper level ridge will become more
influential over the region today, resulting in another hot and
somewhat humid day with highs in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. Though dewpoints across our northwest counties should mix
into the upper 60s this afternoon, ambient temperatures nearing
100 degrees will still push peak heat index values as high as 106
degrees. As a result, the Heat Advisory has been expanded to
include Montague, Wise, Young, Jack, and Parker counties. The
rest of the advisory area remains unchanged, with the great
coverage of 105+ degree heat index values expected east of I-35.

The more subsident environment will keep precipitation chances
low, with only a slight (10-20%) chance for isolated showers and
storms in our far southeastern counties, where weak sea breeze
activity may reach before dissipating. Friday night will be warm
and muggy again with lows in the mid 70s. By Saturday, the ridge
axis is expected to shift east toward the Mississippi Valley,
opening the door for a modest uptick in rain chances across
Central and East Texas, especially during peak heating. Coverage
will remain scattered at best, with most areas likely remaining
dry. There is also the potential for parts of the current advisory
area, particularly east of the I-35 corridor, to meet Heat
Advisory criteria again on Saturday. Despite expected afternoon
mixing, dewpoints are forecast to remain in the mid 70s with highs
in the mid 90s, which would yield peak heat index values near or
above 105 degrees. A final decision on any extension of the
current advisory will be made later today.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/
/This Weekend through Next Week/

The axis of the upper ridge will remain displaced to our east
through Sunday while a weak shortwave embedded within the broader
ridge rotates into North Texas. This pattern will spread low
(10-20%) rain chances across the region late weekend into early
next week, though coverage should remain modest. As the ridge
retrogrades toward the Desert Southwest by midweek, weak northerly
flow aloft will return over the Southern Plains. This may allow
one or more convective complexes from the Central Plains to drift
into North Texas during the midweek period, but confidence in
timing and placement remains low at this range.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with a
prevailing south wind around 6-10 kts this morning increasing to
10-14 kt by this afternoon with occasional gusts to near 20 kt
possible. MVFR cigs have been slow to develop across Central Texas
this morning, currently stretching from near SAT up towards AUS.
The probability of this isolated stratus reaching KACT over the
next several hours has fallen to around 20%. This afternoon, a
few diurnally driven showers or storms may develop across
Southeast Texas, but should not impact the TAF sites.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  79  96  80  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
Waco                97  76  95  76  96 /   5   0  20  10  10
Paris               96  76  96  75  96 /  10   0  10   5  20
Denton              99  76  97  77  97 /   0   0   5   5  20
McKinney            97  76  96  77  96 /   5   0   5   5  20
Dallas              98  79  98  80  98 /   0   0   5   5  20
Terrell             97  76  96  76  96 /   5   0  10   5  20
Corsicana           97  76  97  77  97 /   5   5  20   5  20
Temple              98  75  95  74  97 /   5   5  30  10  10
Mineral Wells       98  75  96  75  97 /   0   0   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-134-135-146>148-162.

&&

$$