Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

755
FXUS64 KFWD 220612
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1212 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A steady warming trend is expected through early next week.

- Many areas will see measurable rain on Tuesday (Christmas Eve),
  with the best rain chances near and east of the I-35 corridor.

- Wednesday (Christmas Day) will be rain-free, but storm chances return
  on Thursday and will linger through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 559 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024/
/Tonight through Sunday Night/

Clear skies and light southerly winds prevail across North and
Central Texas this evening as temperatures fall into the 40s.
Overnight lows will eventually fall into the upper 30s with a few
locations in our northeast from Paris to Canton dropping to near
freezing. Southerly winds will begin to pull moisture northward on
Sunday, indicative of changes to the weather pattern on the way.

Sunday will start out mostly sunny early, but an influx of
moisture feeding into a deepening low across the Northern Plains
will allow a band of stratus clouds to spread northward through
the day. Initially, this cloud cover will spread through the Hill
Country into the Big Country and mainly impact areas of west of
I-35, but should eventually overspread much of North Texas by late
afternoon and evening. Modest isentropic ascent will persist in
the 291-297K layer (~900-800 mb) through Sunday night resulting in
overcast conditions and considerably warmer overnight lows
compared to tonight. Lows will only drop into the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Any light precipitation should hold off during this
time with better rain chances arriving on Christmas Eve.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024/
Update:
The long-term forecast remains on track. Expect a gradual warm-up
into early next week with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low
70s each day. An increase in low-level moisture will lead to a
cloudy day Monday with patchy mist/drizzle at times during the
afternoon and evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
increase late Monday night into Tuesday from northwest to
southeast with the passage of a cold front. The greatest storm
coverage will be along/east of the I-35 corridor during the day
Tuesday (Christmas Eve) with a low potential for a few strong
storms across portions of Central Texas during the afternoon.
Christmas Day will be dry across the region with shower and
thunderstorm chances returning Thursday, the day after Christmas.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Through Late Next Week/

With the return of southerly low level winds, a warming trend is
expected Sunday and Monday. Monday afternoon will see temperatures
10-15 degrees above normal, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s.
Additionally, a resurgence of low-level moisture will result in
warmer overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night, with low
temperatures in the 50s.

A surface low will eject from the eastern Rockies into the
Southern Plains late Monday as a mid-level trough digs into the
Central CONUS. Modest warm air advection ahead of the system will
result in the development of showers across portions of North and
Central Texas Monday evening. As the surface low drags a cold
front towards the area on Tuesday (Christmas Eve), showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage along and ahead of the
front. Many locations will see measurable rain on Tuesday, though
the best rain chances will be confined to areas near and east of
the I-35 corridor. At this time, we`re still looking at a low
potential for a few strong storms in Central Texas during the
afternoon. However, the parameter space does not particularly
favor an organized severe threat, as instability will be limited.
Embedded areas of heavy rainfall are likely given ample moisture
will be in place, but the progressive nature of this system will
preclude any significant threat for flooding.

The cold front will bring an end to rain chances from west to east
Tuesday night, with Christmas Day expected to be rain-free. There
won`t be a significant push of cold air behind the front, with
temperatures only a few degrees cooler (in the low to mid 60s)
Wednesday afternoon.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday as
another system traverses the CONUS. While this set up could
potentially be more favorable for a low-end severe weather threat,
there are too many unknown variables this far out. Ensure you
monitor the forecast over the next several days as these details
come into focus.

Otherwise, mild temperatures will continue through late next week
with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s and morning lows in the
40s to low 50s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south-southeast winds are expected for the
duration of the TAF period. The evening sounding from Fort Worth
showed a very thin layer of moisture at ~5000 ft AGL. Though clear
skies prevail across most of the airspace tonight there is a
plume of VFR ceilings (BKN/OVC 045-060) exiting the Metroplex and
spreading north and east of the North Texas TAF sites at the
beginning of the period.

Persistent low level southerly flow overnight will continue to
transport Gulf moisture into the region with a return of VFR
ceilings around 4000-5000 ft AGL this afternoon and evening.
Further degradation of flight conditions (MVFR cigs) is likely
just beyond the current extended TAF period. Winds will also pick
up this afternoon as a surface low develops over the Northern
Plains with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20 kts
possible through the afternoon and evening.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  49  66  57  65 /   0   0  10  40  60
Waco                64  52  71  59  68 /   0   0  10  20  70
Paris               55  43  62  53  62 /   0   0  10  60  80
Denton              61  47  65  54  65 /   0   0  10  40  50
McKinney            58  47  63  56  65 /   0   0  10  50  70
Dallas              61  50  67  58  67 /   0   0  10  40  70
Terrell             59  46  66  56  65 /   0   0  10  40  80
Corsicana           62  48  70  58  70 /   0   0  10  30  80
Temple              66  50  72  58  71 /   0   0  10  10  60
Mineral Wells       66  50  69  53  66 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$